[PornoDoggy]

I have suspected for a long time that the support for Bush was as shallow as it was for his father.

A lot will depend on who the Democrats nominate, and whether they close ranks after the primaries.

A lot will also depend on how much Bush can keep the reigns on the neoconservatives in Congress, particularly the folks in the House - which may draw him criticism from his base on the far right. That could be a tough juggling act if things stay close - because pandering to the far right too much will alienate more of the center, who I think are far more cynical about his so-called compassionate conservatism; and it will motivate the left even more.

A lot will depend on the economy. A lot will depend on the war - and while those who believe that they have a better-than-average understanding of real politik may not believe it, Joe Schmo out on the street is just as likely to be feeling mislead and manipulated as he is glad we did what we did.

At this point in time, I think it is too close to call - although if you forced me to make a choice I think he'd win again, in just as much of a squeaker as last time. There is, however, a lot of time between now and the election - and if I were him, I think I'd be very jealous of a parlimentary leader who could call a snap election right about now.