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Originally posted by Mike AI@Oct 22 2003, 06:43 PM
Another interesting post, its probably how real business is done, its is kinda depressing.....
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Re: Davis Look at the bottom line.
by: DavisProductions š10/22/03 07:56 pm
Msg: 23032 of 23051
I agree with you.
But aside from the FACT that the patent is bogus and the management is pond scum, let's look at the other facts:
1 - In the past 6 months the stock has gone up over 700%. There is very little short interest, so it's not short covering. It's real buying. Listen to the message of the market.
2 - The biggest players are capitulating. Only the small sites are fighting. What does Larry Flynt know that we don't?
3 - Revenue has gone up 1000% in 3 months. And the biggest licenses to date have not yet kicked in.
4 - The prospect of a large cable company like Comcast agreeing to a license could double the price of the stock overnight. A license like that would be H-U-G-E! Don't focus on the adult web sites. That is small potatos compared to the big prize --- VOD over cable and satellite. Don't forget that one of the first licensees was Lodgenet.
5 - It will take YEARS to get a court judgement invalidating the patent, if in fact the small sites fighting don't run out of money before then.
6 - Their real cost of operations is virtually nil over and above ordinary G&A costs. They don't have a product, hence no production costs other than Xerox paper and postage. That's a 100% margin busines s model.
I'm can't believe I'm writing this, and will have to go puke again afterwards. But I am trying to be objective. Seeing Hustler cave in was a wake up call. If Larry Flynt can agree to a license and call it a "business decision", then holding my nose and buying the stock is the same thing --- a business decision.
That's my story, and I'm stickin to it.
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Point by Point response to above:
1. This is called "making a market" by hype (they are good at that) and zealous rookie stockbrokers. (based upon 1000% revenue increase - see 3 below)
2. Small sites are fighting? Fighting what? Acacia has not engaged in any "fight" to date. Homegrown is a small site/company? And the others that join them? Acacia is a fly on Larry Flint's ass. And besides, why not pay up and put pressure on the competion? Shake a few out. You think there was not a "special" deal there? Of course it was a "business decision"! The guy didn't pay anything worth thinking twice about I'm sure and maybe it does him some good.
3. It is not hard for revenue to go up 1000% when it was nothing in the first place. Let's get real here.
4. They can't WIN the big prize (wide opinion). You are a stockbroker aren't you????
5. It WILL take a long, long time. So wha't the hype and panic. The adult industry most likely won't be the one running out of money. Acacia will. They got a very small handfull of players under their wing. VERY small.
6. Now I know you are a stockbroker - perhaps working for a "market maker" firm. That 1/2" thick full color package that they sent us and nearly everyone else cost a pretty penny to deliver - in bulk even - not to mention all of the other stuff. Oh yah - and that low budget legal and PR team. Now, perhaps, ALL THEY CAN AFFORD these days is Xerox paper and maybe postage (no ink). Might as well send those letters blank because that's all their worth at this point.
You are right - they HAVE NO PRODUCT! They have nothing of value except their investors money which is going fast. This means that their stock has no real value. This normally means BIG crash on the horizon. If they suffer any kind of legal defeat at all - put your helmet on.
Those yuppie execs of Acacia are doing all right though I bet.
My advice: DEFINITE SELL!!!
