I wanted to address some specifics.
P2P looks promising, but it is far too easy to spam. I think it's *already* overloaded with spam; folks looking for certain content can't find it because everyone and their brother have put in those keywords for the content they've got up.
-Some would say this is a good thing, it'll frustrate the surfer into buying a membership and giving up the free porn routine, but I disagree. If the surfer can't find what he's looking for, what makes you think he'll sign up to a generic site that still doesn't have what he's looking for?
Then of course you've got all of the regulations coming down for P2P - not that I think it will ever go away; you can't kill open source. But it does squash each "big" network as it rises to the top and you're left with the smaller ones... at least until *they* get to the top
DRM - also promising but the pricing structure right now puts it out of the hands of most all but the big guys. Hopefully the pricing will come down soon as most technology does come down in pricing after the first year or so.
PPV and VOD - definitely an important part of the future, unfortunately it's hard to find a processor that can handle this type of thing. If you go with your own merchant account you can do it, but then you're getting dinged like crazy with per-transaction fees.
If Visa goes away... so what? Sure, it's made things a lot easier, but online porn was around before online cc processors. Snail-mail checks, online checks, other cc companies, token systems and their ilk, pre-paid subscription cards... the solutions are out there, it's just that folks aren't using them. CC acceptance is too easy to make them bother looking for other solutions. But no matter what, sufers will find a way to pay for porn if you simply offer them a way to do it.
I think generating your own traffic - whether on your own or with your own in-house webmasters or small group of hand-picked affiliates - will be a big plus.
I agree with Vick re: broadband. I've also had cable since '97 and was managing a national DSL installation company in '99... the high speed surfers have been there for years and there has been no overwhelming demand for content that takes advantage of these connections.
I think what most people forget regarding high-speed is that it's still expensive to the *normal* surfer. Sure, we can afford $30-$50 per month for high speed... but your *normal* surfer CANNOT. If they *do* spend the extra money to treat themselves to a fast connection, they certainly won't have money left over to pay a $30/mo porn membership. $10? Probably. $20? Not likely. $30? Nope.
Get out of the thinking of what *you* can afford and what your computer can do and think about the majority of your surfers... it becomes a lot more clear. Pretty flash, broadband content, etc etc --- KISS, unless you want to cater only to the rich surfers. No harm in that for sure, but you're leaving money on the table.
Acacia - yes, there are two companies waiting in the wings to see how those patent cases unfold. I just wish things would move along a bit more quickly and we could have some damn court dates set. The longer we keep waiting on the court dates, the more opportunity Acacia has to send out their packets and spread their disinformation.
I am waiting - drooling, nearly - for SMS to make its way to the US. It's widely used in Europe for everything from online purchases to getting a Pepsi out of a machine in the middle of nowhere. Why the hell don't we have it yet? You want to talk convenience? It's the ultimate in convenience. Plus it nullifies chargebacks as there is a only a charge if the *customer* initiates it from his phone which is all fully trackable.
Wireless porn - eventually, but still not yet. Yes, in non-US countries (like SMS), but not the US yet. Hell, over a year and a half ago Aga was showing me his cool-ass phone that could take pictures and email them. Those are just NOW exploding onto the scene in the US along with video phones. We're so frigging behind in everything. But before the demand, you have to have at least moderate saturation, and the US isn't even close to that.
US regulations - yeah, this will hurt, but there are still ways to be in compliance and make a sale. Some are looking forward to it, as it will possibly force a more softcore landscape that only leaves the surfer the choice of signing up if he wants to see hardcore. If that's the case, bring it on! But on the other hand, there are plenty of servers in the Netherlands where anything goes and the US regulations won't force the free hardcore behind "pay first" doors.
As for myself, I'm focusing on niche and leaving the generic megaporn to the hundreds of thousands who are willing to fight each other for it. I'm focusing on retention and upsells that add value rather than force payment for what was promised to be included in the cost of membership. As an affiliate, I have always had lower traffic numbers, but my traffic converts and my ratios are higher. Webmasters who don't will soon find themselves out on the street, not even able to drudge up beer money.
And if only the sponsors would stop giving the webmasters everything for free... but that's an hour-long rant all in itself...