Sarettah,
I too have wondered what expectations Osama had of the US reaction to 9/11. He very well might have expected US troops to enter the Middle East. Would he have expected the Iraq war though? I certainly think Osama is happy with the political results; a world where people are more angry at the United States and George Bush than Osama and Al Qaeda.
Where I differ from you is that I don't think that any of the current tensions in the world are any more tense than normal. Quite the opposite really.
North Korea and South Korea, Pakistan and India, Muslims and Jews, Russia and a Southern neighbor. This could describe any decade from the 1950s to the 1990s. Arab nations fought Israel in all out wars in each of the decades from the 1940s to 1970s but not since. The current Palestinian situation is orders of magnitude less problematic than the Six Days War or the Suez War.
It is notable that some of the most potentially dangerous hostilities of the latter half of the 20th century are quiet or gone. The Cold War is dead. China and India, two nations which were involved in a border conflict in the 1960s seem to be on the road to better diplomatic relations. Germany reunified and the fears of a return of the historic tensions between itself and France and/or other European nations have not materialized.
Consider also that there are many regional power balancing mechanisms. The UK is both a member of the EU and a key ally of the United States. Japan has minimized its militarization (small compared to GDP) with US troops on their soil keeping the historic tensions between itself and both Korea and China marginalized.
For the first time ever, the US has basing arrangements with many Middle Eastern countries and is a supplier of weapons to Kuwait, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The US is allies with the leaders of a number of Middle Eastern nations even if their populations remain hostile. NAFTA, the EU, and the new free trade zone between China and the ASEAN nations have created strong local incentives to avoid conflict. There has also been a great increase in consensual governments in the past few decades with the spread of Democracy especially in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Whether the spread of Democracy will decrease the chances and magnitude of wars is still quite hypothetical. We’ll have to see.
The great potential hot spots are the same as in every decade since the end of World War II and for the most part, seem to be quieter than normal.
Last edited by Colin at Sep 16 2003, 06:45 PM
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