Quote:
Originally posted by wig@Sep 3 2003, 07:44 AM
Monk, remember that article I told you about that I wrote for Futures magazine in 1995? It was about using RSI as a failure swing indicator instead of an overbought / oversold indicator.
Well, we just hit the failure swing level on a monthly basis in all indexes. This means that we are within a month of a top.
Caveat: we could see a downturn followed by another rally to a higher high with a diverging RSI. I actually have this as my primary expectation going into early 2004.
Regardless, a significant correction should take hold by mid month.
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That's good to know wig.
I don't expect the market will just crash given all the support it has put beneath it over the last 9 months... so a lower high OR a higher high on negative divergences would make sense. I think this sucker will take awhile to roll over.
Not technical analysis, but I imagine the government will do all that it can to keep the market from crashing as we go into the 2004 presidential elections.