I think it's the nature of political systems to conglomerate. If two tribes in an area are getting outresourced, outmanned, and bullied by a third, there's a good chance if they don't form some sort of alliance they will disappear.
The UN, NATO, Arab League and EU are all examples of such alliances.
Whether it stops at 200, 100, 10, 2, or 1 might very well be random. After all, one can become two through Civil War or secession.
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