I have inside information from the Bildebergers.
Seriously though. W will lose for the same reason his dad did -- the economy. Even though things look ok now for stocks and the economy, there are some major cracks showing. After a huge decline in the stock market over the next year, the economy will contract, real estate prices will go down, and more importantly people's moods will be angry and negative.
Based on election history over the past 150 years, when the market falls over the president's last 2 years, he is very likely to lose. So it does not matter what W and the republicans say or do from now until the election, he is still gonna be toast.