Quote:
|
As far as experiments go, the difficulty is no one knows what the economics situation would have been without the stimulus. If one cuts taxes and the economy increases .5%. Who is to say that without the stimulus the economy would have been at -1%?
|
In 17 years of trading markets and watching economic numbers hit the marketplace, the one thing I know for certain is that the market and the economy do not always respond to the stimulus or news they way they are supposed to.
Sometimes, it is is already built into the marketplace, sometimes the "expected result" appears well after the stimulus and sometimes it never appears.
I think JR is accurate for the most part with "economics is based on theory more than anything because and economy is based on countless critical factors that are all highly fluid and in a constant state of flux."
To me, the irrational things that markets and economies display is the result of mass psychology. When mass social psychology is moving in one direction, it is hard to change it with a stimulus policy.