my observation based on everything i have seen and read has been that the EU ecomony is fucked. its double fucked. Germany is fucked. France is fucked... Italy is screwed. unemployment is through the roof. Germany has the highest unemployment in decades and its Europes largest economy. France just received their second official EU warning for budget deficits.
now France, in typical French style, is protesting because the Social Security system is a few years from being bankrupt.. but they (again) wont let the government raise taxes and they dont want to work longer and dont want to make any sacrifices. pretty funny coming from the people who one year ago were protesting for a 35hr work week.
fine with me. a chateau in the valley would be kinda cool.
I dont think the EU is going to be paying off much debt in dollars if they are broke like they are right now.
the US economy is currently growing at roughly twice the rate of the EU economy.
a weak dollar means that there are less EU exports to the States
a weak dollar means that less people are spending money in the EU and traveling to the EU.
their economic problems are be compounded on many levels.
the one thing i have not understood is how it will be a good thing to invite 10 post soviet basket case countries into the fold when the biggest and oldest economies cant get thier shit together and conform to the EU agreements for monetary policies.
my prediction is that the EU will become symbolic and it will exist on paper only in the end.
Why? i watched the UN fuck around with the Iraq thing. I realized some of the more fundamental flaws inherent in that system and why conflict resolution never happens and wars are never averted. I think its because every country has two primary obligations first... their own interests as a nation and the political interests of the politicians.... THEN... comes political alliances with common interests (arab/islamic countries, communists, dictatorships, western europe etc etc)... the actual problem cannot be dealt with unless it is in the direct interest of the majority of members to do so. That historically, does not happen. Its usually in the better interest of most that no action is taken.
the EU is headed right down that path in my opinion. The idea itself assumes common and even identical legal, political, national, security, cultural and economic interests. How does a politician make unpopular changes domestically to conform to the greater good (i.e. fiscal policy, taxes, trade etc)?
The larger it becomes... the more diverse the political, financial, economic, cultural and security and trade interests become. the more that happens, the possibility of consensus/agreement and a common view on every issue decreases dramatically.
I think the EU will fail as it is envisioned. I think England is right to keep everything at arms length and not to join the Euro.
i am probably wrong. but i think the UN offers a good example of how it cannot work.