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AOL is the most profitable address on the planet and they are getting ready to try to put people in prison. if you remove AOL from the spamming equation, that in itself reduces the profitability of spam quite a bit.
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The motivation behind AOL disapproving of spam is because they aren't profiting from it as much as spammers are. AOL & Microsoft together in their new 'fight against spam' is nothing but a ploy to build systems which allow their approved spam through & spammers eventually cracking the system and getting their mail through. New regulations only change the dynamic of how the business of bulk email works, it doesn't end it of reduce its effectiveness.
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there are two types of spammers basically as far as i have seen:
1) the schmucks. (apparently all using dial up accounts in Brisbane) 
2) the professional spammers. i think these people are responsible for what is by far the largest part of spam. probably more than 90%. its the ability of these people to do what they do that will determine how much spam you get in the future.
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I disagree ... I believe that the professional spammers don't need to send as much email to get results. I know that one of the most valuable things to professional spammers is a good remove list - one that will contain every possible person that could get them shut down. Professional spammers run scripts over their lists to clean them up and remove duplicates and obvious problem addresses like dot gov and nasa and fbi addresses ... and so on ... Why send 10 million if 7 million are duplicates and nasa addresses?
The schmucks don't think of this ... they see a list of 10 million emails for sale for 2.95 at ebay and off they go ... 10 million emails make it to the internet but only to 3 million are unique people.
THAT is why spam is a problem in my opinion. Sending 10 million emails IS something almost any adult webmasters could do, but knowing the difference between a golden 3 million email addresses and a shitty 7 million. Leave spamming to the professionals and i think the problem would DECREASE by 90%.