i think that Bushs "fuck you if you dont like it" style of leadership has put him in a nasty position.
Bush has made many mistakes. The first, was declaring after he was elected that the policy of his government was the removal of Saddam Hussein from power.
i did not think that Colin Powell was particularly convincing with his speech to the UN. i mean, i believe he may be correct in what he said, i believe that he beleives that Saddam Hussein is a threat. the problem that Bush and his crew have, is that they failed to convince the world. I saw a lot of flimsy and circumstantial evidence that told me that if that was the best case they had to make to the world... they were better off not making it.
in my opinion THEIR LARGEST MISTAKE BY FAR was a simple issue of semantics that cost them world support - that was continually referring to the UN inspection team as "inspectors" and referring to their work as "inspections". The word inspection implies that they are there to search and discover and that the burden of proof rests fully on them.
they made early and repeated demands about Saddam not letting "inspectors" do their job. now "inspectors" are there and though Saddam Hussein is in complete non-compliance with the UN Resolution 1441 - he is able to turn the tables and say "they are looking... and just as we told you, they are not finding anything". Because of that, he was able to help Bush paint himself into a corner by creating a situation where an attack could not be justified in the worlds opinion.
It occurred to me early on that they should of been referring to them as a "verification" team or use some term that suggests that they are there not to find anything but to verify, based on information given to them by Saddam. then the case could have been made that Saddam was not cooperating since large stockpiles of weapons were unnacounted for and their location/destruction could not be verified.
as it is, they are not finding new evidence of what happened to massive stockpiles of weapons that are still unnacounted for AND they are even finding undeclared and illegal weapons and the world is saying "yeah, well... its PROOF that the INSPECTIONS are working". Saddam once again, cleveryly maneuvered to put the US President in the hotseat and not himself.
Iraq is still not accounting for stockpiles of VX gas, Anthrax, rockets, chemical bombs and other weapons - BUT that is where reality and world opinion clash. People are under the impression that "inspections" are supposed to discover these things and it can only be concluded that "inspections" need more time.
i think that simple word "inspection" was a primary cause of a loss of world support.
BUSH MADE A FIRST GAMBLE that came back to haunt him
the whole use of "weapons of mass destruction" and making a weak case for Saddams government trying to pursue or obtain nuclear weapons. a case that today, still is 100% unsubstantiated in the worlds opinion. He went before the world talking about aluminum tubes as "proof" and i watch the news all day long and have to admit that they totally lost me there. i had to do a bit of research just to understand what the fuck they were talking about.
of course, now the Inspectors are saying that they are not convinced that they tubes were for a nuclear weapons program... oops.
BUSH MADE A SECOND GAMBLE that came back to haunt him.
Bush rambled on and on at the UN about Saddam Hussein not letting "inspectors" in the country to do thier work. That was one of the bigger arguements BEFORE Resolution 1441 and it was a gamble that Saddam Hussein WOULD NOT cooperate once they were allowed back in similar to how he did in the past. thus justifying military action. Now what? inspectors are there. The first report said clearly that Iraq was not cooperating. That was the final window of opportunity to justify war. it closed. NOW "Iraq, is more cooperative". So world opinion is now that the process is working.. and should be allow to work because people seem to believe in peace at any price.
I dont think the US will get support for a second UN Resolution authorizing them to attack Iraq. I think they really thought that either they would... or that the case would be so strong enough in world opinion to do so. Today, it looks really doubtful.
BUSH MADE A THIRD GAMBLE that came back to haunt him.
He tryed to tie Iraq and the need to overthrow Saddam Hussein to terrorism in a VERY unconvincing way. They cost themselves credibility on that front by making unconvincing refferences to Al Quaeda that no one took seriously which cost them credibility on two fronts 1) the war on terrorism 2) attacking iraq.
the fact of the matter is that Saddam Hussein is a much better politician than George Bush. He is a tactitian. They are not even in the same league. Saddam Hussein is an evil and murderous dictator who has told the world to fuck off for 12 years... and today, the world is standing by his side.
The worlds opinion today is "yeah, he is a ruthless murderer, a bad person and is bringing nothing but misery and death on his people - but lets give him some more time".
Beginning a Presidency by declaring that "the policy of this government is the removal of Saddam Hussein from power" then building up a massive fighting force in the Gulf and then failing to convince the world that Saddam needed to go, and causing more support for Saddam Hussein was one of the bigger political blunders in US history.
Last edited by JR at Feb 16 2003, 11:15 PM
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