a lot of things are changing very fast.
spam is getting harder and harder
tgp's convert worse and worse
free hosting is less and less profitable
processing is more expensive
member retention is less and less.
there are a lot of factors still present to some extent that still allow bozos to succeed "regardless of I.Q." . i dont really think a lot will change in terms of the total volume of paysites, total volume of free content etc that will help anyone be more profitable.
business is business. this business is just becoming like any other business in the world. it is maturing and the people who are really poor businessmen will not succeed or will succeed less and less. i think it is really erroneous to point out certain declines and certain areas and make blanket statements about the industry in general and its future. in the middle of the constant whining and complaining, there have been some amazing success stories this year as well.... Bangbus, Lightspeed etc. there are many.
there IS ALWAYS ROOM for someone to work harder, work better, work better, work smarter, market themselves better, innovate, create, experiment and stay ahead of the curve.
"Whats the next pasture"?
who knows. why is it reasonable to assume or hope that there will be another pasture? surfers are smarter, the dot com era of "irrational exhuberance" (as Greenspan put it) is over. The dust has settled. Now its time to really focus on what works, on the basics and on understanding why some people like Alscans can make so much money with so little content and never so much as change the same shitty design in 4 years and people elsewhere are crying that the sky is falling though they have more cash, traffic and resources.
personally, i have never been more optimistic. for each person that complains about things getting worse, i see opportunity.
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