I have been thinking alot lately about this industry and how badly I need to diversify before its too late if anything should happen.. so plans are in motion todo so, but epic is my top priority...

question is.. is where do you guys/gals think we ( as an industry ) will be in 6 months to 1yr.. how many programs do you expect to fold due to visa and all this other shit going on... whoever survives is sure to reep the benefits like it was 96-98 again right? maybe not as profitable, but surely more money spread thicker...

anyone able to predict who they think will go under and why?

Sig whores are going down, Lensman is FINALLY cleans the house and brings sense in his board.

but...if he doesn't unban the oldtimers -
GFY will go down anyway

My uneducated guess is that nothing drastic will happen during the next year. Someone goes someone comes.

although that may be true, i do think it will have an impact because you see so many people getting ripped off these days by new programs, that nobody trusts the new kids on the block so to speak.. so they are going to use the older more established sponsors vs the newer ones IMHO....

that's what I think...

:okthumb:

Thats the way it was, the way it is and the way it'll always be :D


As long as theres someone willing to do the visa tango I see no major changes.

bingo

that's what I think...[/b][/quote]
I would agree that nothing much will change in the short term....6 months to a year. What I am most concerned about is global politics. I think September 11 and the subsequent events did the most damage since I have been in the business. I do believe there will be another major disaster in the coming year and we will all have to keep our head down. It could even be cyber terrorism of some description that frightens surfers. Hell every time there is another virus attack or a new worm, there is a dip in sales. Spam bombardment keeps a lot of folks off their computers and it all adds up. Personally, I think all of this nonsense hurts business more than Visa issues.

although that may be true, i do think it will have an impact because you see so many people getting ripped off these days by new programs, that nobody trusts the new kids on the block so to speak.. so they are going to use the older more established sponsors vs the newer ones IMHO....[/b][/quote]
Don't let all the hype fool you. Being in business means taking risks, period.

Before I got involved in adult, I had a small design business working for interior designers doing custom fabric stuff. I really enjoyed it but the business end just got to be too much of a pain in the ass. NOTHING sucks worse than having to sue fucking millionaires for like $800. Or even better, when you deliver a huge order up front to a store unaware they are about to file bankrupcy. There are crooks in every industry, unfortunately.

In fact, there are a couple places that STILL owe me money and I just haven't felt like calling them and harrassing them about it.

And at least in this industry I don't feel like I need to dress up and and present myself in a certain fruity snooty way to do business with others.

I always dress up for the occasion.
http://www.porngreen.biz/maiden.jpg


Sorry I ruined the thread.
http://burns.thefinaldimension.org/o...thebirdman.gif

TGF you should be spanked - never wear a french maid outfit without the garters and hose! :D

My girl has some, but I didn't fit into them.

you just cured my morning erection problem.....

You're welcome.

I always dress up for the occasion.
http://www.porngreen.biz/maiden.jpg


Sorry I ruined the thread.
http://burns.thefinaldimension.org/o...thebirdman.gif[/b][/quote]
hahahha woohooo I need an autographed copy of that!

:D

I always dress up for the occasion.
http://www.porngreen.biz/maiden.jpg


Sorry I ruined the thread.
http://burns.thefinaldimension.org/o...thebirdman.gif[/b][/quote]
your a sexy beast!!! :yowsa:

Of course I keep saying this, and extendingthe time frame, but I think those programs/webmasters who can make it anotehr 12-18 months will really benefit, and will be here for good.

There are many pressures on this industry. In the old days the pie was growing, so everyone worked together to get their own new-fresh peices. Now the pie has stopped growing ( especially in the US market - other markets are opening, and we need systems to tap them - especially billing wise) you see people starting to fight to hold on to their peice of the pie, while others try to take it.

This is why you see a lot of companies who have in the past shafted the surfer, are now shafting the webmaster. This is why you see the big boys trying to consolidate and make it a private game that they dominate. This is why you see AVN and the old boy network of big video producers and magazines make pushes nto the indutry and make deals that hurts the little guy.

It is going to get much uglier, so everyone better hold on and be prepaired. I personally have invested a lot of $$ and time into PureCash, one of the main reasons was to have a program that is modern, easy to manage, and to take advantage of opportunities that WILL arise. I am one who thinks opportunity always opens up in times of chaos and major change!

Sorry for the long rambling post....

in speaking with our lawyers some time ago, they stated that (and this is rumor so nothing is definite) we will see a fall of quite a few big players. reasons being are that they have already made their money, therefore they can venture into other things, they really dont see the new visa rules as pratical therefore making their cb ratio next to impossible to meet, and with the govt cracking down on obscenity laws....well even a softcore, boob flashing image could be construed as obscene and these people our lawyers referenced as "big players" do not want to constantly look over their shoulders.

in addition, when you have visa pretty much telling you what content you can and cant have on your site, it creates a big issue of which you have to ask, if i have made money to venture into safer projects, is the hassle of this business worth it.

will it be like 96? fairly close but not exact because the consumer has become wiser to the chargeback game. they know they have you by the balls for most wont take the time to fight a cb (most, not all). when i say consumers, i mean everyone from surfers to webmasters. it really is a shame what people will do.

on the positive side, those who survive will be in the beginnings of a small gold rush. content on and in sites will be better and i think overall, this industry will finally take their "business" seriously. no more with the i can make a million in a month; this is a job, we all pay taxes, we all work hard (whether it be photography, design or customer service...it is all work). for too long people have thought this to be a lax business and for that thought, quite a few will and already have paid.

I think processing will get more expensive/risky next year, if you want to continue using the current recurring billing model.

Programs with 3rd party processors will have a hard time keeping the current sales with the same amount of traffic, because processors will scrub harder and some banks (cardholders) will blacklist 3rd party processors doing high risk internet transactions.

Programs with their own merhant account will have to process at minimum volume to keep their accounts + there will be more background checks on who controls the account. This means that programs can be out of luck getting a merchant account, unless they are prepared to do some investing.

However most programs will probably not fold, unless one of the big 3rd party processors stops doing business. But due to the hard times ahead I guess many program owners are looking to sell...

I always dress up for the occasion.
http://www.porngreen.biz/maiden.jpg


Sorry I ruined the thread.
http://burns.thefinaldimension.org/o...thebirdman.gif[/b][/quote]
Gonzo -- dont even think about it. I aint shooting that shit...

Gonzo -- dont even think about it. I aint shooting that shit...[/b][/quote]
Hell Im still trying to figure out why this guy was looking for a fat fucking ugly assed male webmaster a few weeks ago.
Reckon he aint got a mirror over there?

I prefer fur...not a lacy apron.

*hairy* remember the keyword, hairy. :groucho: