I used Massey Computer ratings (http://www.mratings.com)
to compile the probability of each undefeated college football team remaining undefeated at the end of the regular season. Here are the probabilities:

Oklahoma 47.48 %
LSU 16.77
Nebraska 14.6
N Illinois 11.79
FSU 13.18
Minnesota 10.61
Arkansas 10.13
Miami 10.11
VTech 5.73
OSU 3.81
Using these, the probabilty of at least one team finishing the regular season undefeated (pre-league chamionships and bowl games) is: 81.2%

OU will win it all. I plan to be in NO for the Sugar Bowl.

texas will beat ou this weekend. i have my tix and i'm ready to finally win one against the maroon assholes :)

the first three i kinda felt like they deserved. after all. there isnt much else to do in oklahoma besides watch football and hate their betters (the longhorns)..but now we've just let it get out of hand and it's time to let stoops know that we just let him win those last 3 :D



Last edited by Hooper at Oct 5 2003, 08:23 PM

Hooper, maybe we should place a friendly bet. How about a hunting trip? Loser pays?

It is nice to have the Sugar Bowl be the top bowl game this year. Should make it much more interesting....

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH

Gotta love the eternal optimists.

Hooper,

dont be a sucker bro, if you wanna bet Shaw against OU,
your better off with OSU than Texas.


:yowsa:

Hooper and I placed a bet on the OU/TX game.

If OU wins, Hooper pays for me and 2 others to go hunting. Room, board, etc.

If Texas wins, I pay.

http://www.roughcreek.com

yep. i'm lookin forward to guttin some wild boars this year. gonna be a shame to make brad pay for my usual outing :rolleyes:

Hooper, this year Greg will not be tying the animals to the trees. I will arrange for you to take a boar with your bare hands!

No point spread?

Football is boring.

football is boring? hee hee
OU baby
Brad and I are going to see OU vs Texas A&M
revenge
and I hope to hit the Sugar Bowl
as we crush FSU

I ain't much of a sports fan; but I used to live there...Oklahoma could fuck up a wet dream! :biglaugh:

nah. just a win loss bet.

Slow your roll Torone.

Oklahoma has alot of bad qualities, or lack there of, but they still
have the best football team in the nation, hands down.

I think texas really does have a great chance in this game. Point spreads i'm seeing are oklahoma - 6.5 which is pretty friggin tiny given that they are #1

Go Horns!!! :rokk:

I do not think Hooper or I care about point spreads. I know he will feel no better if Texas loses by 6 versus 2.

Meni, A&M should be fun, my new tailgate BBQ should be here by then! Now I just need a hitch on the Ferrari!

Soooo,

Your planning a game without me?

I see, ok Brad, was going to get some content from you
for ICE, but now, Im forced to deal with your competitor.

:headwall:

hey I forgot it was Texas - OU weekend.

I need to go do some stabbin' friday night and maybe some looting too.

I love the festivities

i've forwarded your unamerican remarks to the appropriate authorities shok. :P

I heard the teams want 3.5 mill each to keep playing at the fair
or else the red river shootout is going to home - home series
does the sugar bowl happen within 1 or 2 days of internext?

Slow your roll Torone.

Oklahoma has alot of bad qualities, or lack there of, but they still
have the best football team in the nation, hands down.[/b][/quote]
I repeat...

No matter how good the team. :agrin:

since OU isn't playing KU this year, they might have a shot.

UNLV, Wyoming, Jacksonville State and Missouri have all crumbled under the crimson and blue steamroller from Lawrence.

:bjump:

that is inherently flawed, ark, lsu, va. tech, miami and fsu all have a mitigating factor of 50% that has to pass before they can even remain on the list, making their total odds far less.

If you go by SoS, Certainly Oklahoma has a very good chance. but the fact that they are in a superconference (like lsu, ark) gives them one extra game and further changes the way their odds are calculated, whereas ohio state, miami, va tech, and florida state do not have the extra game,( in fact when you combine the extra games and see that all four of those teams in whole or in part have to contend with one another, they should be at the bottom on a percentage basis, having much more obsticles as variables, but i digress...)seeing as you are going by a system that assumes a 12 game schedule, when some of these teams play 13, and even 14. not to mention the loser of the BCS championship would have one loss.

In other words, much is yet TBD, and if you are going to judge teams to go undefeated, the only true way to get a clean control and variable would be to separate the teams into categories, accounting for the head to head, number of games and a multiple of differential variables.

IMHO.

-Grimm

Oklahoma has a negativve running game, and is prone to the pass and special teams errors.

It would not surprise me if they lost this weekend, i am expecting them to win, but big receivers, a better line, and a constantly improving defense (add on a michael vickishyoung QB) as long as the mack brown factor doesnt come in to play, texas has a shot.

an interesting side note. Miami will either get blown out or blow out, historically, their rate of loss by under seven (the spread) is negligible, while their percentages of wins by over seven points is astronomical.


Still being a buckeye, an oklahoma loss, a miami win, and a future miami loss to va. tech, and a big win at camp randall this weekend work out best for my alma mater:)

correct the "all four" to everyone except the four mentioned, and it will read a lot better:)

College Football is boring and ignorant

Why watch nobodies that will never play one down in the NFL

You're settling for garbage when the best athletes in the world play on Sunday

College Football = :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz: :zzz:

Wake me when it's over and it's done

with a point spread, i will take all comers:)

Um I think that is the Kansas City Chiefs

at least this week

Hey Vick,

Check this one out. The 2001 Miami Hurricanes had 33 players that are or will play in the NFL. That's more than the Bengals! ;-) ;-)

Our running game isn't that bad
and we fixed the punting
2 step now
and special teams?
didn't perkins run for 277 punt return yards and 3 tds?
Bradley ran a kick off back 100 yards Saturday
we will roll over anyone
and check out WR's
6 deep
not 1 a senior
i think
lemme check later
boomer sooner
and boys, we recruit like no other
OU is a dynasty
oh so is Miami

Grimm,

You should know I'm more careful than that. I took the good space to say both prior to league championships and bowl games and "at the end of the regular season". ;-)

Yes, and as you said each of those 6 teams has a 50% "mitigating factor" or so which is exactly why Oklahoma's odds of going undefeated are better.

Also, I didn't assume the length of the schedule and head to head schedule is how the odds were determined. Now you could argue the merit of using computer generated win/loss probabilities for each head-to-head game but that is another debate entirely.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 9 2003, 06:37 AM

BTW. Look at OSU. Great team but 5 top 25 teams left.

#22 Wisconsin 5-1
#15 Iowa 5-1
#23 Michigan St 5-1
#20 Purdue 4-1
@ #19 Michigan 4-2

Anyway, why does OSU play 8 home games and 4 road games? Weird.

I fear...
no one
OU fears no one

You feared no one last year too ;-)

Hell yeah, Finally a fellow Jayhawker.
Should have NW to that list of downed teams too.

I would love to see OU and KU play, this year anyways.

no Colin
last year
with Hybil
i did fear shit
now with White
and the best D ever
I fear nothing
but Serge's anal penetration

Grimm fuck you;-)

You should come out for the game and buy me a ticket!

I'll take the Pepsi challenge. 1991 (12-0) Miami Hurricanes. Points given up.

---------------------------------
(Rankings at time of game)

Arkansas 3
#10 Houston 10
Tulsa 10
Oklahoma State 3
#9 Penn State 20
Long Beach State 0
Arizona 9
West Virginia 3
#1 Florida State 16
Boston College 14
San Diego State 12
Nebraska 0

Bowl game. Shutout Nebraska 22-0. Nebraska went into game with the nations #1 offense and had only 1 yard in the entire first quarter.
Held vaunted running game to 82 yards.

On the season: 100 points in 12 games.

---------------------------
Oklahoma so far this year. (Not sure on rankings).

North Texas 3
Alabama 13
Fresno State 28
UCLA 24
Iowa State 7

74 points in 5 games.



Last edited by Colin at Oct 10 2003, 06:27 AM