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-   -   Any predictions for 2009? (http://www.oprano.com/msgboard/showthread.php?t=92828)

gonzo 01-02-2009 09:10 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 823502)
DRM failed. It is too cumbersome and too overbearing, and punishes the good customers and doesn't really defeat the bad ones (who will just get the content anyway).

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

Fuck thats it Im going back to work and tell them to shut it down.

Paul Markham 01-03-2009 02:19 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 823502)
DRM failed. It is too cumbersome and too overbearing, and punishes the good customers and doesn't really defeat the bad ones (who will just get the content anyway).

The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

Locking down content will not stop Tubes getting it for free.
If we actually do achieve the impossible, Tubes will buy DVDs and encode from them. Stop thinking it's surfers ripping sites and putting up full scenes. It's the Tube sites. Most websites watermark videos, most DVD companies do not. Go check the major full length Tubes.

The best way of doing it is to limit the amount a member can download in a day and block auto downloaders and tell him why. Most members understand what Tubes and pirates are doing to the industry and the effect on their entertainment. Let's not demonise the members, these guys are the solution not the problem.

As for content having value. I chuckled over that one. I'm on the receiving end of the content buying chain and know exactly what value many sites put on content. Most content on most sites is not worth protecting.

So let's really dream, possibly under the influence of some blow, and imagine a world where most sites lock down their content so no one can steal it and DVDs are encoded so no one can rip them. I did say we were dreaming. So what would be the results of this dream?

Sites like Brazzers would give content to Tubes for free.

Whoops!!!!!

As for chasing thieves, that made me laugh. You have to prove their stealing in the first place. Then go to where they are to find them, then take them to court, then take the company that replaces them to court in the country they are in. Please if the record industry could not do it why do you think we can?

RawAlex 01-03-2009 09:54 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Paul, I don't for a moment assume that a tube site is "user submitted" anymore than I think that the millions of profiles on AFF are real.

My prediction for 2009 is that you will continue to just miss the point.

Paul Markham 01-03-2009 11:09 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 823508)
My prediction for 2009 is that you will continue to just miss the point.

Guess that makes two of us.

There are DVDs with porn. Plus companies who will chase the short term dollar and not lock down content, companies with content that simply is not worth locking down, companies selling up for a fraction of what the content is worth and companies like Brazzers who will give them all the content they need.

So why do you think locking down content will be possible and a solution?

Would love an explanation how the impossible is possible.

I suppose it's about as possible as a legal solution and that gets a lot of people missing the point as well.

RawAlex 01-03-2009 01:27 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Paul, you didn't pay attention - I didn't suggest locking down content as a solution. Please go back and re-read and try again.

gonzo 01-03-2009 01:48 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
I predict you tube opponents are about to have a bad week.

Paul Markham 01-03-2009 05:39 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 823502)
The only way to lock the content up enough hurts the business more than anything - so you have to be proactive about chasing thieves. 2009 will be the year content producers wake up and realize that if they don't protect their content, it has no value - and at that point, the entire porn business no longer has a financial leg to stand on.

OK I mis understood what you meant by protecting content. You still miss the point on protecting and chasing thieves. It's not a viable option. Unless affiliates want to cut their commission to 10% to pay the lawyers in all the countries the Tubes sites are run from.

OK maybe not 10% but the money to pay the lawyers has to come from somewhere. Are you going to put some in the kitty?

Got another unworkable solution.

RawAlex 01-03-2009 07:16 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Paul, again, you are missing the point - it isn't about chasing after the thieves directly either. I swear you never read past the first sentence of any post.

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.

Toby 01-04-2009 12:21 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

Paul Markham 01-04-2009 02:33 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 823517)
Paul, again, you are missing the point - it isn't about chasing after the thieves directly either. I swear you never read past the first sentence of any post.

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.

Sorry I did not realise you were serious about this.

<b>The biggest harm in my mind comes from Google SERPs. Example, searching for the Cumfiesta episode featuring celeste:</b>

Here's a prediction for 2009.

The key to most anti tube posts and ideas is to stop the surfer having that option. Those who think the key is to force the surfer to buy, deny him access to what he prefers will find out how WRONG they are. It did not work in the past, does not work now and will not work in the future. So long as the options exist.

If a guy who will not spend on porn can't find the content he wants on Google he will find it another way. He's probably already found the sites he needs, your solution while being a good back up plan is not the solution. The only solution is to make paysites worth joining and free sites unprofitable.

In 2009 we need to get away from the belief that traffic is the most important thing. It never was and not going to be in the future. Sales are the most important thing and always will be. Everyone has learned that increasing sales does not always lead to an increase in sales. Sometimes it leads to a drop in ratios.

So long as the option to not pay for content competes with the option to pay free sites giving away will take customers away. We need to target just those people and get them back to buying because they want to. Not because they have to.

Here's an idea for you Alex. You're not allowed to send a DMCA on others content unless authorised. What you can do is 2-3 times a day do a search on Google for sites like Cum Fiesta and send an email to the person they authorise with all the info and in the form of a DMCA. Once you and they see the results of this plan you can start a sideline and charge for the service.

We will see if it brings down free sites.

RawAlex 01-04-2009 11:46 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Again Paul, all that, and you just didn't read what I posted.

I predict for 2009 you still won't get a clue.

Paul Markham 01-04-2009 05:14 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 823521)
Again Paul, all that, and you just didn't read what I posted.

I predict for 2009 you still won't get a clue.

Want to point out what I got wrong then?

Quote:

My thought is pretty simple - work with major traffic sources (the SEs) to eliminate the torrent and illegal tube sites from the SERPs. That would dramatically shift traffic back to the programs and away from those sites using material illegally.

You don't need lawyers to do the work either. Heck, you could do it yourself for your own sites.
Because I read it and thought it meant you think attacking Tubes via Google will close them down. I'm bloody sure you don't think getting people who are looking for free porn on a Tube site to come to my site instead is going to work. No please don't tell me that's your plan. Explain to us exactly what you think will work and maybe we will all do it. Trying to be vague and look clever is not a solution. I can't adopt a plan unless I know what it is. You did say I could do it on my sites.

Come up with something that works and I will support it. And that's the problem and the reason Tubes still exist. Trying to get Adult Internet companies and workers to act collectively is like herding cats.

RawAlex 01-04-2009 06:31 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Paul, again, you are really missing the point.

You are trying to find a black and white, 100% sure, total complete solution. The fact is that this is no perfect solution, nothing that will stop all file traders, nothing that will stop all illegal tubes, nothing that will stop carders, scammers, and theives. I am not in an way suggesting that this is possible.

Go to google. Search for your content under common terms that people come to your site on (specifically on the title of your sites or girls names on your sites is a good way to find them). If you see an illegal tube or torrent site with your content listed, linked, or otherwise provided, you are good to go. Note the listing, note the exact page, the name of the file, etc - and then send a DMCA to Google. Google has no option but to act to limit their liability, and they will remove those listings.

If the top 10 or top 20 for a site are all links that actually go to the site (or an affiliate promoting the site) then a significantly higher number of people searching for the site will actually find the site. If the top 10 is packed full of torrents and illegal tubes, then the majority of your SE traffic is going to them, not you.

Will it shut tube sites down? no. Will it stop torrents? no. But if your SE traffic goes up or the amount of affiliate traffic to your sites goes up, then your bottom line should improve. Figure 10% lost first page traffic for every listing in the top 10 that doesn't go to you, and then you know how much traffic is lost.

Better than that, it doesn't matter a single bit if anyone else in the industry does it, because nobody is searching for "paul markham teens" expecting to find "big cock teen addiction". It's all about improving your own part of the internet. The more people that sweep up in front of the their own door, the better the streets look, no?

Think past your nose.

Paul Markham 01-05-2009 02:36 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Sorry if I did not explain it properly. I do not think we will kill all piracy, just those who we think are doing damage.

Me I'm doing something I think will work to lessen the impact of Tubes if enough adopt it.

Your idea might work and I explained how you need to do something further than post on boards. If you really care and really thik it will work do it and show us. If you're just talking on a board continue as you are.

gonzo 01-05-2009 08:44 AM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Thanks for all the ideas guys.

Ill be on a panel Monday at Internext talking about the Future of Porn.

EmporerEJ 01-05-2009 01:34 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
I think 2009 is going to be a great year for the industry.

miz_wright 01-05-2009 01:54 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
1)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Toby (Post 823474)
The solution to tubes is really pretty simple in concept. Offer a product that the tubes can't. Yes, easier said than done, but that product can take many forms.

2)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Toby (Post 823519)
In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

1) Heee. Indeed. Alternatively, harness the power of them in the same way TGP/ MGPs were harnessed, and put them to work FOR you. Piracy is going to happen - always has, always will, whether on the ocean or the new age of surfing - and it's never, ever been able to be fully combated. So harness it or make it an uncrossable barrier.

2) I expect to see a lot more of these types of services cropping up. I know of at least one company who employs a "flood-to-annoyance" strategy on torrents and tubes, with trash files.

TheEnforcer 01-05-2009 03:27 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
My prediction for 2009

I'll go to a show and flirt with Liz nonstop when I'm around her! ;)

Paul Markham 01-05-2009 03:55 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Toby (Post 823519)
In interesting strategy to combat P2P.

http://www.xbiz.com/news/all/103223

I missed this and wish I had not. It will be interesting to see if it works. I was posting that we could be doing this on the Zoo months ago. I think these guys might be a revenue stream we could be exploit. We don't have the image problem like the record industry.

RawAlex 01-11-2009 06:55 PM

Re: Any predictions for 2009?
 
Well, a quick note from the front lines of porn.

Based on what I could see at the AEE show, it would appear that porn is alive and well, and that there is plenty of fan demand for the girls, fresh content, and so on. Plenty of interest in many of the toys, products, and companies involved overall.

Sunday (today) was a little quieter, but Saturday at the show was a zoo with lineups out the door and people lining up around almost every booth to get an autograph from the girls and to check things out. Thanks to BangWang and all the people at Silver Sinema giving me a place to stay out of the crowds so I could step back and enjoy the show of porn marketing at it's best.

I am guessing 2009 is going to be all about people being able to pay for porn, not a lack of demand.


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