Yes, what if?

If such events are independent then the average distance between events doesn't matter.

If they are dependent then how many "cycles" would one need to see in order to

1. determine such a pattern even really exists?
2. reach any given degree of accuracy with a prediction?

Just hazarding a guess but I would think 10 "cycles" including depressions would still leave way too much error and at the current rate that would take 1000 years.

I wouldn't bet against you on equities. I don't think we've had an equities bubble of this magnitude in our lifetimes and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if there was hell to pay for that. NASDAQ has already been hell. NYSE is just heck so far. The market is still a bloody bitch as far as I'm concerned.

I'd take the other side of the depression bet though.

Good question. For me, I can say that after 17 years of looking at futures markets, the repitition of cycles, although dynamic, is too repititious to be coincidence. It is just my opinion.

Also, it is a way to ascertain probabilities, not certainties.

And I would not blame you. :D

It is a moot issue given the definition and time. I hope you are correct and I am wrong.

When we talk about the "big picture" it is mostly smack to me, anyway.

But, when you consider that what I successfully use to speculate on shorter time frames is just a different degree on a bigger time frame, it is hard for me to dismiss it.

It is all smack because I don't do anything with the information but observe.

I do go out on a limb here and make predictions that I do give specifics for and that I probably have personal position on that reflect it. I'm not afraid to be wrong.[/b][/quote]
How would you even evaluate your own internal prediction without defining the words you are using?

"I predict a depression" only make sense if one defines what a depression is.

I predict a "qwerty horse maneuver" in gold. Care to take THAT bet? How will I know if I am right? Those are just words.

I rather suspect Buff and I would not agree on what a depression even is since we don't agree on what a recession is.

Do you really mean that or just as a figure of speech?

How would you even evaluate your own internal prediction without defining the words you are using?

"I predict a depression" only make sense if one defines what a depression is.

I predict a "qwerty horse maneuver" in gold. Care to take THAT bet? How will I know if I am right? Those are just words.

I rather suspect Buff and I would not agree on what a depression even is since we don't agree on what a recession is.[/b][/quote]
I'm not predicting it. Show me where I said that.

I just said I would not be surprised if an event rivaling the Depression of the 30's is seen.

I don't know how to define it other than that if we are in a depression we will know it! :yowsa: In other words, it has to be pretty bad times.

You seem to want to put a measurement to it to divide two sides. I am not interested in jumping on either one.

I don't mind making predictions out 1-3 months or less and just for the fun of it. I don't think it is very interesting to anyonme if I said buy bonds here and two days later, sell them there.

Do you really mean that or just as a figure of speech?[/b][/quote]
Of course I mean it. I don't profess any holy grail.

History repeats, markets repeat, there is pattern within the chaos. I look for patterns in both price and time to determine the next probable set of events in market action and then speculate. It is not something that I can observe every single day. Most of the time I look at a given market and I don't have a clue what's next.

And, when something does emerge, there are many factors besides the initial analysis. there is the execution, both in and out (especially the out) and risk management.

I am also adamant that predicting the markets course on a given time frame is much easier than executing that belief!



Last edited by wig at Jul 3 2003, 01:43 PM

I'm not predicting it. Show me where I said that.

I just said I would not be surprised if an event rivaling the Depression of the 30's is seen.

I don't know how to define it other than that if we are in a depression we will know it! :yowsa: In other words, it has to be pretty bad times.

You seem to want to put a measurement to it to divide two sides. I am not interested in jumping on either one.

I don't mind making predictions out 1-3 months or less and just for the fun of it. I don't think it is very interesting to anyonme if I said buy bonds here and two days later, sell them there.[/b][/quote]
You didn't. Buff did. I got that royal plural going on when I said "you" ;-)

Of course I mean it. I don't profess any holy grail.

[/b][/quote]
Then what are the probabilities? Why are you keeping them secret? Holding out? ;-)

Then what are the probabilities? Why are you keeping them secret? Holding out? ;-)[/b][/quote]
LOL... I don't try and calculate a number % wise for a probability.

And, I am more than willing to share methodology to anyone who wants to formulate their own probabilities. :groucho:

LOL... I don't try and calculate a number % wise for a probability.[/b][/quote]
So it is a figure of a speech ;-)

"Probability. Statistics. A number expressing the likelihood that a specific event will occur, expressed as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences. "




Last edited by Colin at Jul 3 2003, 01:56 PM

So it is a figure of a speech ;-)

"Probability. Statistics. A number expressing the likelihood that a specific event will occur, expressed as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences. "[/b][/quote]
No, it is what I perceive to be greater than 50/50. I don't assign weights to each indicator that may be one of many indicators to then formally arrive at a %.

For me it is part art and science, not one or the other.

Oh, guessing!





.. j/k, man ;-)

ROFLMAO.... yeah, I guess! :D

So everything is based on where the 50/50 mark is? So you are saying there is a greater than 50% probability of a depression-like event in the next 30 years?

Or .. are you just saying "don't be surprised"? Because that's not a lot of info. I'm not really surprised by much. I don't know how to act ;-)

Seriously, though. I have not tried to quantify it because there are so many indicators and there is both price and time to look at.

Not every trade I make has the same set of alignments. I never saw the importance of trying to assign a value and keep track to calculate a mathematical probability.

It is in my head and ultimately will be proven correct or not based on the $$$ (or lack thereof) in my account.

I can live with that!

So everything is based on where the 50/50 mark is? So you are saying there is a greater than 50% probability of a depression-like event in the next 30 years?

Or .. are you just saying "don't be surprised"? Because that's not a lot of info. I'm not really surprised by much. I don't know how to act ;-)[/b][/quote]
If you want to make me guess and put a number on it, I would say that I am right 85% of the time.

I suppose we could go back and look at every prediction on the markets I have made on Oprano. There are enough of them to make a judgement.

Wig, I'm going to go get some more fireworks now. What are the odds that I have too many for what I am about to do this weekend? ;-)

100%! Have a good time and don't blow yourself up!