I'd vote for you Vick!

I will put up 30k against MattK that Bush does not lose in a landslide.....

Who is going to be escrow?

Classic.

Too early too tell. Too many factors undecided (you know, small stuff like the state of the world and who the Democratic candidate will be).

Of all the main possibilities:
A Bush wins in landslide
B Bush wins close
C Democrat wins in landslide
D Democrat wins close

I would think C is least likely at this point but possible if economy slides or Osama strikes again or something like that.

I think it's an impossible prediction to make from this point but that some people will hit it on luck.

I think C becomes even more unlikely if Osama strikes again, if there is one thing people can depend on it's that Bush kicks terrorist butt.

Classic.[/b][/quote]
kinda cruel. like turning back Cubans once they made it to Florida.
i feel sorry for GFY refugees.

I think C becomes even more unlikely if Osama strikes again, if there is one thing people can depend on it's that Bush kicks terrorist butt.[/b][/quote]
That could be too. I think it would depend on the timing and how well the Democrats market it as a Bush failure vs. how well Bush can market it as
a Bush success. It could be done poorly or well on either side.

Osama still being out there could be marketed well as a Bush failure I think ESPECIALLY if he strikes again. If Osama is caught near election time though that would really give Bush a push and no marketing needed.

This is where guys like Rove and Carville really shine.

I think a lot of die-hard Republicans say "Bush kicks terrorist butt" and a lot of die-hard Democrats say "But where's Osama?" with a lot of people in between leaning a little more towards the former though.

I bet they have Osama tied up in some basement, if he'd be dead the US wouldn't need Bush no more ;-)

Those die hard democrats.... you have to be a pretty die hard moron to argue Rumsfeld is sitting on his ass and that the failure to capture Osama is due to incompetence.... and then to add insult to injury claim that some tree-hugger is going to do a better job.

If any new candidate is going to beat Bush I think his strongest selling point is going to be charisma, good speaking skills and the ability to give a good spin on whatever his agenda is.

To win over the masses it's not what you're selling that's important, it's how you sell it ;-)

I'm telling ya...... watch that Cinton piece at C-Span!! Like him or hate him the guy is a very interesting speaker and he nails it right on the head when asked about the 2004 election. He basically gives an answer for what a politician in any election needs to do to beat their opponent and it's an awesome response.

Love Cliton or Hate Clinton.

Dems and Repubs alike say he is a politcal master. I am not sure we can pull it off in 2004, but I am hoping.

Glad that Carville's wife is gone from the white house, or is going. Mabey James will work for 1 of the canidates.

I have always loved and respected that guy. he might have that Southern drawl to him, but he is a master in his own right. oh and belive me when I say he loves the good fight!!!!

Mike must love him, being a fellow LA person :)

MattK,
time to be a man...I accept your bet,
do you have any escrow agent in mind or do you trust mine?

put up and collect $60k if Bush loses election by landslide.[/b][/quote]

ok, but how do we define "landslide"? I'd like to have use of the 30K from now until the election (since it is 1.5 years from now) in a seperate investment account, like keeping it at Etrade for example. I am going to be shorting the market as it goes down, so I would rather double the 30K versus just having it sit around earning 1% in some escrow account.

We should meet at internext and work out some kind of arrangement B)



Last edited by MattK at Jun 15 2003, 03:04 PM

MattK,
I know it's unfortunate,
but I have no clue about your solvency, and therefore,
escrow is mandatory.

are you gambling with your last 30k?

you shouldn't, son.

being a good guy,
I'll save you some money and give you FREE advice.

Behind EVERY stock market rally,
was invention drastically changing people's lives.

Railroads,
automobiles,
computers,
internet and now, for the first time,
company after company reports they found the cure for CANCER.

I beleive that we are in the "compuserve" stages of the "internet boom" with biotech.

Hopes and cures will fuel the new bull market and shorting the market might prove futile.
I also have a vested interes in your finances,
if you lose your last 30k,
my chances of collecting will be greatly diminished
;-)))

ok we can compromise and do the escrow some months before the election or at the start of 2004.

I'm a little confused, am I betting you for 30K AND MikeAI for 30K? if you both want to bet I'd rather keep it at 20K each.

we should just bet on where the dow and nasdaq will be 6 months from now. I say below 7000 and below 1200. any takers :groucho:



Last edited by MattK at Jun 15 2003, 03:39 PM

this is a very large decline from current levels so I would want 2 to 1 odds on this bet.

this is a very large decline from current levels so I would want 2 to 1 odds on this bet.[/b][/quote]
MattK,
I don't think you have enough money for all those bets you propose......
are you short since March,
which would probably explain your lack of solvency
;-)))

this is a very large decline from current levels so I would want 2 to 1 odds on this bet.[/b][/quote]
cool,
I'll take this bet too...
now you are for 80,000 in bets...unless MikeAI would wanna get on the action too, than it's a round number $100,000

cool,
I'll take this bet too...
now you are for 80,000 in bets...unless MikeAI would wanna get on the action too, than it's a round number $100,000[/b][/quote]

80,000 in bets? so far I thought it was a proposed 40K for the election.

I think we should start with a smaller bet on the direction of the markets as a trial run. Then we can do the bigger election bet when the first bet is over and everybody is satisfied.

I'll put up 15K on this market bet. If the dow is below 7300 (notice I changed it by 300 points) and the nasdaq composite is below 1300 (notice I bumped it up by 100) on friday december 5, 2003 at the end of trading day, I collect 45K from the escrow account. If either index is above those levels you collect 45K from the escrow account. You can set up the escrow account and I wire the 15K.

are we breaking any laws by doing this? I think some online casinos take prop bets on things like market direction and elections, etc but they are all offshore.

MattK,
I noticed that you raise the bar,
like most liberals do,
'till I finaly say:
Fuck it, enough,
I've had it"

can you, liberals stick to somethign and STAY with it????

That's optimistic.

That's optimistic.[/b][/quote]

yeah it is very optimistic. next week is pretty important as far as wether we will see a top to the recent rally or not.

I'm not a liberal

ok well if there is no escrow issue we could bet now. Otherwise we will have to wait till some time in 2004. so we wait :)

if I had an extra 100,000 I would say it is an excellent wager for the markets declining big time over the next 1.5 years and Bush not winning the election.

do you know WHY I have $100,000 and you don't?

there is only ONE reason:
I don't piss away money on
bets on the markets, elections, etc

I only do the sure things
;-))))

...and finding cure for cancer is a SURE THING in not to distant future,
the train already left the station.

As for taking "critical week" in the week of tripple witching,
is somewhere childish, can go 300 points either way depending on options/futures relations...

one day you figure out how this all woiks
;-))

hmmm.

Porn site owners charged with billing for free services




Last edited by MattK at Jun 15 2003, 07:28 PM

MattK,
I am an honarary Gambino or Bonbano, I don't remember exactly,
my honorary certificate is burried with Hoffa...

as for "connections to collect the debts",
one thing I learned,
you can't collect NADA from those who don't have it
;-(((

skinning you alive still won't add one single penny to your solvency....

and to quote my favorit charecter to sum it all:
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son"

for $10, without looking into SE,
who said it?

for pasterity:
this was the post MattK posted before he edited it and the post I responded:


"Don't you have some good nyc connections from your days promoting high society and that whole "your credit card will not be billed" thing?

Porn site owners charged with billing for free services

If I lost the bet and did not pay you could get some big guys to come over and take care of it, so then I would have to pay up Thus no escrow account would be required "

Bill Clinton?

Bill Clinton?[/b][/quote]
shit,
you can't make even $10 and you wanna bet $40k????

you guys need a delete post button, editing takes a few seconds.

Great flick.

you guys need a delete post button, editing takes a few seconds.[/b][/quote]
yeah, and you are slow too
;-)))

my-my....

Great flick.[/b][/quote]
I've seen it probably 20 times and we'll see it again,
this one IS a classic!
;-)))

yeah, and you are slow too
;-)))

my-my....[/b][/quote]

ok: fat, stupid, drunk, and slow

3 out of 4 ain't bad

:nyanya: :headwall: :groucho: :stout: :hic: :rokk:

HAHAHA you'd be amazed how much you can collect if you're convincing enough ;-))

I went to go see it but it's 1 hr 50 min, a bit too long for a streaming video clip ;-(

But you're right about Clinton, he's an extremely good speaker and always comes across as if he really knows what he's talking about, always nails it right on the head. The same goes for James Rubin who is simply brilliant at giving press conferences.

Bush is the exact opposite, he comes across as if he is reciting someone elses speaches, poorly, and if he get's asked a question he wasn't expecting he starts stuttering and forgets what he was trying to say halfway through a sentence. Doesn't neccesarily mean he's stupid but it does make him look stupid. It's a definite weakness for a presidential candidate.

I think if the democrats can put forward a candidate with the charisma and speaking skills of Bill Clinton or James Rubin he may just win over that portion of voters that is not overly loyal to democrats or republicans and just votes for the president they like best.

IMHO the election between Gore and Bush was such a close call, Gore would have won if the American people wouldn't have been so disgusted by the Lewinsky affair. Now that the Lewinsky case is history and the current republican president is lacking the needed verbal skills I think it is quite likely the democrats will win the next election. If I were a betting man my money would be on the democrats for the next election.

But what do I know, I'm just a stupid foreigner ;-)

Our political system is nothing more than a Hollywood production these days. All flash and very little substance. :blink: From scripted press conferances with a lapdog media to stagecraft for any and all speeches. The debates between candidates, while very interesting, are so rigidly structured that it practically all comes down to personality.

Both parties practice it but these days every time I hear about how Bush is such a "genuine" and "regular" guy I just about die laughing. :lol:

HAHAHA he's about as genuine as a Barbie doll ;-)

He's sharing a cell with Noriega.

It's your thread. What did you mean?