Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

I agree with Tony404. TGPs never really were that much of a problem IMO, because we just started focusing on pushing the video aspect of the sites and since most surfers would rather jerk off to a video than to some pics, we could show them plenty of free pics and still make the sale if the pay site was video heavy.

The problem with Tube sites is now the only reason someone would have to join a video based site is because the quality is higher and that's a harder sell, IMO.

The only thing a surfer really needs to pay for now is webcams and fortunately the cam companies are smart and have actually begun limiting the time a surfer can chat for free rather than increasing it.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Any form of interactive live program will always be successful especially if it's sexually based :wankit:

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

let's see... recession? Hmmm.

At this point, the unemployment rate is still pretty low. People are still working. Obviously, if the housing thing becomes a bigger issue than it already is, there will be all sorts of implications. Potentially the largest issue for online porn would be credit issues, people losing credit cards, and not being able to make online purchases. We are still very dependant on credit cards to make this business go.

The upsides? Well, if unemployment goes up, there is a potential that more models will become available and willing to do porn for cash. We could also see an increase in online business as guys stop being able to afford $300 or more for a night at the titty bar, replaced with a $5 download of a porn movie or a $25 a month membership to a site.

With the US dollar so low, the prices of memberships expressed in US dollars are really low now for European buyers, so much so that American based porn is pretty much a give away. I have noticed a trend in sales that I see more action across almost all programs in the key european hours, and not in the key US hours.

There is money out there, just have to find it.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

I find it curious how everyone is desperate to climb on the European bandwagon. I have been pounding that drum forever and have always done very well in Europe. Its amazing how a blip in sales brings on yet another "new wave" of marketing genius. As for the analysis, I don't quite agree. This "housing thing" is huge. A whole lot of people have been living way beyond their means for a long time. And the piper is starting to send out invoices in plain red envelopes.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

:waving: been riding that wagon for awhile now. I love those kinky fuckin' Germans. :D

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

For me its the English and Italians. But yeah, what you said.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

get out the bidness now! for u all burn in hell!

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Uh huh.....I heard that five years ago....and before that...BW, you gotta get some original material. Much as I think you are an astute gentlemen, you do fall flat. And this be it, dude.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Buckwheat....I am sad to inform you that you died 28 years ago of a heart attack at the ripe old age of 49.
William Thomas, Jr. (March 12, 1931 – October 10, 1980)

don't lay down, you might not get up.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

I think the difference is now I am seeing this sort of move even on sites and projects that aren't specifically aimed at the euro market. The overall sales are happening more that way naturally. It's funny to think of the US as a low cost provider of anything except the boy king's lies.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

"Poppa got a brand new bag" - James Brown.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Oh, and I hate to nit pick, but it SHOULD be:

How will the recession "AFFECT" our industry, not "EFFECT" it.

Had you said: "What EFFECT will the recession have on our industry?"
That would have been Ok......but, you know, you didn't, and it's really been bothering me.

Can't sleep...pacing the floor....the usual.

Don't feel bad, it's a common mistake. It just jumps off the page at me, 'cause I'm anal about those things.


:whistling

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Obsess much?

;)

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

You think I'm bad, you should talk to my brother.
He drives ME nuts.
:waving:

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

i do agree with you. But sad to say, no offense intended, this is old news. I remember going toe to toe with Mike AI, who drifted away when it all went sideways. But I knew I was right then and I know nothing has changed.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

yeah, it is just something that is way more obvious than it use to be. The European sales had come up across pretty much all programs I deal with (from what I could gather) and now what I am seeing is the US and Canadian sales slipping away. So it isn't so much that the euro sales went up that much, as much as the us sales slipped away and made it easier to see.

US content producers must be thrilled. :)

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Where are you seeing 30 minute movies?

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

He might be wearing Paul Markhams glasses.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

I have found a number of tube sites with movies ranging from 4 to 15 minutes. Considering that most guys, given material they like can pretty much spank one out in about 10 minutes means that these sites are very poisonous to the business goal of free porn: Selling pay porn.

The very basics of the business is get their dicks hard and don't let them get off until you get their money. Tube sites don't respect that, instead making their living off of selling ad spaces, dating memberships, poker, and PPC spaces. They for the most part don't sell porn - they sell everything else but.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

lets see a 20min one http://www.redtube.com/7049
23 min http://www.redtube.com/1636
22min http://www.redtube.com/1632
26 min http://www.redtube.com/6929
36 min http://www.redtube.com/6863
25 min http://www.redtube.com/8086

Look forward to your apology

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

You are partially incorrect about that.
I am an affiliate for several sites that I rely on that make that mortgage payment for me monthly.

And Im pretty sure there I have a few membership sites out there still running with more to come.

The core of this debate is irresponsibile posting of copyrighted material on websites by individuals that do not own it.

Make no mistake Tony. Its THEFT in my book.

If your content is on any site unauthorized I encourage you to file a DMCA complaint to the host. If you need any help doing that I will be happy to walk you thru and I think that there is a form letter we have around here as well as one Alex has posted.

Let me be clear on this Tony... ANY site that has your content is THEFT and you should persue this with great vigor.

Those sites that you posted with 20 minute clips are STEALING if they do not have rights to that content.

This isnt the first time weve seen this done either. I think we saw many cool kids run a membership site from STOLEN CDs. Do a search on the Zoo and see how many of them have bragged about having a CD RIP site in the past.

If you think that I am not sympathetic about this kind of theft in the industry you are wrong and for that I apologize.

No different than Jace's rave buddies bragging about downloading FREE porn instead of paying for it.

This industry has created its own problem. The old way of...free sites are tease and pay sites are to please isnt how I see many webmasters promoting on free sites.

The paysites are the same. I remember Mike AI's old Purecash sites that didnt even show you a bare nipple until you paid.

Now you have morons that give away the full meal on the tour.
I dont know that it will ever end. Quite honestly after spending 10 days with many despirate people looking for a clue makes me think all of this will only get worse.

Remember this is a business that tolerates THEFT to its employees by labeling it with a cute term - shaving.

Make no mistake its THEFT.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

good points and im sorry i judged you.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Ah yes! I there are plenty of sites like this out there.
What to do?

Lets see here first off is that stolen content?
If so whos? And better yet do they give a shit???

Then look all over that page. The ad network is a good place to ask their policy on sites with stolen content. BUT have to figure out is that actually stolen content?

[Querying whois.internic.net][whois.internic.net]Domain names in the .com and .net domains can now be registeredwith many different competing registrars. Go to http://www.internic.netfor detailed information. Domain Name: REDTUBE.COM Registrar: ENOM, INC. Whois Server: whois.enom.com Referral URL: http://www.enom.com Name Server: NS1.CHOOPA.COM Name Server: NS2.CHOOPA.COM Status: ok Updated Date: 10-dec-2007 Creation Date: 07-jan-2006 Expiration Date: 07-jan-2009NOTICE: The expiration date displayed in this record is the date theregistrar's sponsorship of the domain name registration in the registry iscurrently set to expire. This date does not necessarily reflect the expirationdate of the domain name registrant's agreement with the sponsoringregistrar. Users may consult the sponsoring registrar's Whois database toview the registrar's reported date of expiration for this registration. If you are the content owner then you need to complain to the hosting company which is choopa.comOnly problem I see here is determining if this is stolen content and if the owners give a shit.They have to file a DMCA.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

is it stolen content thats too funny.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Hmmmm.....and now the CDs I kept from BBS days seem so much more valuable.....

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Busty Babes?

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Stareware, and a bunch of other "BBS ready" content with full licensing rights....

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Giffy Girls!

All those predate the cut off for 2257 as well.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

There are three things that have allowed these things to come to be:

1) User demand -- there is and always be strong demand for free porn and the more you give away and the easier you make it the more people will come.

2) Cheap pipe -- pipe keeps going down. we didn't give away much when a dedicated server with a couple of megabits cost $2500. price went down, we had picposts. price went down some more thumbposts. more? mgp's. Now? tube sites. Anyone wanna bet against DVD rips next?

3) Monetization -- users will share stuff, but someone somewhere has to pay the server bill no matter how much of a bargain the pipe is. some of these guys hanging out in the top 100 of alexa are still paying thru the nose. they aren't doing it for charity, they're making money. The site tony posted as an example had the "usual suspects" for advertisers.

So what do you do?

Hard to fight it, the genie is out of the bottle. They have traffic, someone will ALWAYS be willing to pay for the traffic. Individual copyright holders can certain vigorously enforce their rights. But that is a game of whack-a-mole and a drop in the bucket. There might be some overall action taken by government, ftc or whatnot, but by the time that happens it's irrelevent.

Cant beat it join it? Some have, some more will. Is there a legitimate way to do this? You bet. Same as there was with TGP's. Those who can do it well will make good money due to the traffic. Those who dont will wonder either why they cant get traffic or why they cant pay the bandwidth bill. Or why they are getting their ass sued off. Content producers should be working toward embedded digital watermarks so those who desire to be legitimate for tubes, p2p, etc, can check and see if the copyright holder desires a clip to be broadcast.

Imagine a world where you could electronically tell the difference between trailers and promotional material versus actual content? Wow, I can think of some hellacious business plans for that. For now you can only do it with heavy moderation or restricted posting, lots of manual labor required, but you can run one of these legitimately. YouTube is trying, as are others.

The rest of us have to adapt. There has an always will be free porn. In fact there will always be more and more of it as bandwidth allows. You can easily track this all the way back to the BBS days. So how do you get people to pay when they can have so much for free? You've gotta market and sell WHY they should pay. Exclusive content, friendly well organized UI, no malware or intrusive ads, and quality quality quality. The big things these tube sites can NEVER offer is full on high-def quality. You have to find a way to give users a taste of that without giving away the farm to make them want more quality and less of the jerky flash crap from the tubes.

Also realize you can NEVER force anyone to buy something. There are certain people in this world who have more time than money and will never pay for porn. This is probably 90%+ of the people who visit your sites. You have to get over there, nothing you'll ever do to convert those, let 'em go, filter 'em.

Now if I come across here as being in favor of tube sites and free porn, I'm not. I'd love nothing more than a world where you cant see a nipple without a credit card. But I live in reality. We've been dealing with more and more free porn for 20+ years going back to the BBS days. I've been making money selling it that entire time. You've gotta adapt.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

How do you adapt to a site full of 15 min+ scenes for free that's just a click away?
People forget 60% percent of the video experience is sound. Thats why youtube does so well, the picture may suck but the sound is good. Same with adult tubes. The thing that may bring the house of cards down is the goldman suit. Ron Goldman's father owns the rights to the OJ book, BT's have been giving it away freely. They are suing the advertisers not the BT who are offshore. His lawyer said they want to give away they can do it from the poor house. They win, it sets precedent our industry can run with that.
Let me share with you my prediction of the future of the industry if everyone goes tube crazy.
Governments will start banning online porn to protect the children. Now you will say there's a shitload out there now for free. Yes there is but to the non tech savy its not a clear picture but a tube site full of full scenes is a very clear picture to the nontech savy. Have some prime minister or senator click and see anal fisting for free.
The problem with this industry is its very short sighted and if my prediction goes down the industry will have the balls to say, why are they picking on us? lol

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

I have a slightly different prediction.

Government intervention is a perpetual threat. I'm old enough and have been doing this long enough that it first started for me with Meese. Problem is the governments cant react quickly enough. And with the internet, it'll be just like gambling, even if clearly against current laws, you've got offshoring to fight.

My prediction?

Sponsors will turn more to generating their own traffic, being very selective about affiliates they accept, and it'll start to turn the landscape on it's ear a bit. Shrinking margins mean little room to support a needy affiliate who sends 2 sales a month. I see a lot of people having to go get more traditional jobs.

What does that mean for tubes? Everyone I know of in the adult arena that isn't already owned by one of the big companies is for sale. I see sponsors buying them up, cleaning them up and using them for a traffic source.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Hell Puppy, everyone said the same things about TGPS about a year after they were launched. It is true that many of the bigger TGPs have been bought out and merged, but it would appear than many of them now are making their money selling spots for listings and not by being great traffic generators.

The other thing is the effects of tube sites. Many people running these tube sites have come to realize that they are a VERY marginal business, with huge bandwidth, maintenance, and potential legal expenses, with somewhat limited income potential, often becasue they have given away so much content that the surfers just don't buy porn. When you see tube sites getting sold, it is because the business model is tough and not working in many cases, not because of their big net incomes.

Unlike mainstream, there isn't as much money in porn sites getting millions of unpaying visitors. There just isn't enough people in porn stupid enough to pay mill rate to be on a pornsite, everything in porn is tuned to production and results. There are very, very few tube sites out there showing that they can actually make decent ROI right now, and that is what is keeping them from being as attractive to the programs.

Tube sites have proven they can get traffic, but they have not proven they can make money. Traffic stats are only there for the owner to masturbate over. Money makes the world go around.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

I wasnt clear, Im not thinking of just America, Im thinking of other governments. Germany wants age verification and if your wind up in their sights now, you get a letter and your lawyer recommends not to go visit there. Australia is trying to filter it out. Im thinking places you would never imagine saying no more.Besides being banned if its also filtered out, doesnt matter where you go, your done pretty much online.
BT's, news groups, tgp's,etc a ton of free porn but doesnt send a message to the nontech savvy as a tube site.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

On another board they are talking about tubes and here is something to ponder
"I'm staring at 14k hits from the biggest one with 0 signups.

Those are hits to a usually very nicely converting adult site.

The traffic going to other things does ok.

Take from that what you will."

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

No different than sending traffic from google's adwords program to someone elses revshare program. You will break even at best if you are only getting 50%.

PPS isnt even worth the time.

And breaking even is over the longhaul.

Tube sites are no different. Youd better have something your getting paid 100% of recurs to make any money.

If you look at it month to month your right. Both are a huge loss.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Anyone bought a spot on The Hun or any other big TGP lately and wanna share those numbers?

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

KevinG was telling me about a Hun story in Vegas.

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

Here's the scoop on that.

As you know, Joanna Angel is one of my top clients and I work on her solo girl site and other sites she owns as an independent contractor.

She also has an office with employees on staff.

While I do spend some resources promoting with free sites with fair results, I have written off TGPs a long time ago.

However, one of the employees was successful at getting a gallery placed on The Hun.

In 2 days we got 175,000 unique visitors from The Hun.

Anyone want to guess how many sign-ups we got?

(Gonzo -don't answer.)

Re: How will the recession effect our industry?
 

you betcha...