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Gee Meni - my mother is a dyed in the wool Southern Baptist who gives most of her money to the church. She writes letters announcing her boycotting of TV show advertisers, she doesn't watch R rated movies, she thinks slavery is OK, gay people should die, and you shouldn't ever chew gum. She is so anti-abortion that she carries a little plastic fetus in her pocketbook. We won't even get into what she thinks about pornography......
Since she is my mother, per your logic, I am exactly like her. :unsure: |
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http://www.snopes.com/politics/religion/gibson.asp |
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that money could go somewhere else hey colin whats the deficit? I didn't ignore anything the employment rate? only those getting checks are counted its not accurate 3 million jobs lost MSNBC |
http://xboard.biz/pop01.gif Passion of the Christ= Shmatrix 4
I think |
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Hell, most Republicans still think that the Clinton economy was a "false economy". That's one of the more amusing attacks I've ever heard. Of course, the Clinton era economy was a great one. We've had it really good lately. People have forgotten the 1970's and early 80's. Last edited by Colin at Mar 23 2004, 07:09 AM |
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Hell, most Republicans still think that the Clinton economy was a "false economy". That's one of the more amusing attacks I've ever heard. Of course, the Clinton era economy was a great one. We've had it really good lately. People have forgotten the 1970's and early 80's.[/b][/quote] Most people who understand anything about economics (be they Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Independents, or politically inactives) know that what happened in the 90s was a false boom created from monetary expansion, followed by a bust which always follows a false boom. Clinton did oversee a watered-down version of NAFTA, which was great for the economy, and he deserves kudos for that. A full-on free trade version would have even been better. But Clinton also oversaw the raising of taxes, which is not good for the economy. But then again, Clinton also oversaw the shutdown of the government for a brief period of time, which was absoultely marvelous and the best possible thing that could be done for the economy save a permanent shutdown of the government. Whereas the only thing Bush has done positive for the economy is the miniscule tax cut. Everything else from the deficits to the tariffs to the increase in government size and scope is horrific. Honestly, I'm tempted to say that Clinton was better on the economy than Bush. |
Buff,
Nothing happens in a vacuum. If you want to compare economies we have to do that. Compare real economies. How does the Clinton economy stack up historically? Damned good. Solid GDP growth, historically low unemployment, low inflation and reduced deficits. If that was a "false boom", where's the bust? If this is it, it was sure as hell worth it. The last recession was years ago. Or maybe you are still predicting The Great Depression II starting .. when .. next month? How about a timeline? I'm not assigning credit. How much credit does Clinton deserve for the roaring 1990's economy? No one knows. I have no idea. You can't disentangle that. You mentioned NAFTA but left out all of Clinton's trade agreements. He worked all over the globe arranging regional trade agreements. Hundreds of them. Under Clinton, government spending compared to GDP fell to a 35 year low. Even the number of people on welfare dropped. I would think you would be a big fan. |
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Take a look at the value of the dollar, Colin -- vs other currencies and commodities. Take a look at real purchasing power -- what one dollar buys today vs 10 or 20 years ago. And if you want to know what an impending disaster looks like, check out the debt statistics for households and factor that in with the national debt. Americans are not saving. Period. There's a great article about the economic implications of that here: http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north254.html |
Tell me, Buff. When were the good times in America?
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But to pretend like there is going to be no bill due for a government which has run up over $7 trillion in debt and citizens who are smothered in personal financial debt is lunacy. |
What I mean is ...
If the 90's weren't good, what periods were? When was the last time government shrunk in proportion to the total size of the economy, GDP rose at a good clip, the deficit was substantially reduced, inflation was very low and unemployment reached extremely low numbers? I'd say the late 1960's were pretty good. The late 1990s trump anything in between. |
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Anyway, debts must be paid or forgiven, and either case will be cause enough for economic collapse when the bill comes due. Last edited by Buff at Mar 23 2004, 08:06 AM |
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I understood the high to be around 98% in about 1947, but it doesn't really matter -- what that ratio does not account for is changes in the entitlement debt e.g. structural changes in social security, etc. The debt is much greater than is reported and what you think it is. Enlightenment: How Large Is the Federal Government’s Debt? Quote:
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Buff, are you still short the 10 year?
My point is that economics are poor in predicting how markets and economies will turn out. After the fact, it is easy to assign reasons to an outcome. You are probably correct that the excesses of the past will one day be wrung out, but pointing to economic data in an attempt to time it is useless. Witchcraft, baby! |
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I'll agree with you guys that it is quite possible we'll have a nasty fall at some point. I just wouldn't put the odds any higher of that happening in 2014 than 2064 or even 3004. I'm long on humankind. |
Another fallacy of economics as they apply to markets.
The same fundamental information that got you in the trade has not changed all the while the market has moved strongly against you. |
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I'll agree with you guys that it is quite possible we'll have a nasty fall at some point. I just wouldn't put the odds any higher of that happening in 2014 than 2064 or even 3004. I'm long on humankind.[/b][/quote] Yeah, I'll be there. We should do dinner again! Anything is possible but when it comes to taking risk I am not a big fan of trying to predict economic collapses. Been there, done that and it only costs money! All I know is that I was long bond futures from 112.00 and got out at 115.12. I am short Nasdaq futures from 1537 and am still short half my position (got out at 1376 yesterday). Still have this week as cycle low (maybe stretching into next week). |
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Short the 10 year. You will make money. |
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Anything is possible but when it comes to taking risk I am not a big fan of trying to predict economic collapses. Been there, done that and it only costs money! All I know is that I was long bond futures from 112.00 and got out at 115.12. I am short Nasdaq futures from 1537 and am still short half my position (got out at 1376 yesterday). Still have this week as cycle low (maybe stretching into next week).[/b][/quote] And my gold prediction... Ha! I said buy in the 200s and it's in the 400s. And it will be in the 800s by 2008. |
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Short the 10 year. You will make money.[/b][/quote] Buff, Maybe you have not been paying attention, but I trade a lot and I take it very serious because I have a lot of money at stake. You came out a month or two ago and said sell it. It is up from there. In fact, it is up enough that being long bonds made me mid 5 figures on the trade. Now, I don't know what you trade or what your idea of shorting the 10 year is, but if it is in the futures market it has been rammed up your ass. |
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I said buy in the 200s and it's in the 400s. And it will be in the 800s by 2008.[/b][/quote] Buff, Not to knock you. I'm sure that you are smart and have convictions. I am on record long before you about Gold and the US Dollar. Would you buy Gold right here? |
Got to love how a thread about the Passion of the Christ morphed into trading
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The Passion of the Markets!
:rokk: |
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