I once managed an office of 30 Series 3 Futures/Options brokers; even with all the research available to me, my personal account was almost always on "life support".

For what little it's worth----check out my Feb, 2003 column at my www.davecummings.com. I wrote that column in early Feb while the DJIA was around 8200, and felt like we'd see a rally by the end of this year. I cautioned then, as I continue to do now, that the price of crude oil was a key factor in inflation--it still is, in my opinion; and, with the way the FED has printed and distributed dollars, it's weaked the dollar considerably and has worried me that we could see inflation increases in 2004. Traditionally, the Fed fights inflation (defined as more money chasing the same goods and services, thus raising prices) by raising interest rates to dampen demand, thus making more goods and services available at cheaper prices. Higher rates often translates into more demand for dollar-denominated financial instruments, thus strengthening the dollar.

With crude still in the $30+ range, instead of the $25-28 that I think we need in order to sidestep energy inflationary pressures, and with the ready availability of cheap dollars and low interest rates to spur our economy and corporate earnings thus possibly giving the FED reason to raise interest rates and shut off the printing presses, I predict considerably better days for the dollar by this time next year. I'd buy the dollar index and/or short the 5 and 10-year notes and possibly the Euro. Interest rates and the PRICE of financial instruments work inversely--thus, higher rates usually means falling prices for notes/bonds.

But, what the heck do I know---keep in mind that I've been on the wrong side of trades most of my last 15 years of life; hell, I can even afford a comb and brush:-)))

In my opinion :salute:

dave yes

when EURO was .8500 what fundemetnally supported a move to 1.21s ?
fundementals are meaningless, charts absolutely do not lie


im thinkin EURO will really start gettin clobbered after the election
in late 2004 after "Sept 2004" .

well, for some reason,
the expression
"Don't sell America short" comes to mind
;-))

In 1930, my grandfather bought those same candy bars for 2 cents each.[/b][/quote]
My grandfather couldn't afford a candy bar in 1930.

You're right about the availability of cheap dollars, but no one is taking up the offer.
Look at the latest M2 figures.

M2 graph

the money supply has been decreasing lately. I don't really know what to make of it.
It's hard to see the USD turning around any time soon. The pressures on the current account are so high, there's the Iraq money hole, ther prospect of Bush 'buying votes', uncertainty over trade tariffs over textiles with China. Also the trend and general sentiment are against it

I hope the Fed start raising overnight rates sooner rather than later. With gold (an inflation hedge) over $400 there are some alarm bells on the distant horizon.

Re: US Dollar
 

Originally posted by gold4dinar@Dec 6 2003, 01:55 AM
dave yes

when EURO was .8500 what fundemetnally supported a move to 1.21s ?
fundementals are meaningless, charts absolutely do not lie


im thinkin EURO will really start gettin clobbered after the election
in late 2004 after "Sept 2004" .

WineTalk
well, for some reason,
the expression
"Don't sell America short" comes to mind
;-))

I was looking at this

Serge, almost 2 years later its still the same :D
1 Euro = 1.21530 US Dollar

Re: US Dollar
 

Could I have been more right? God damn, I'm good.

Re: US Dollar
 

Hurricane Hero!

Re: US Dollar
 

Don't worry.....Hershey is gonna move some of their production overseas to China, and you'll be able to afford that candy bar again.

Milton Hershey is currently spinning in his grave.

Re: US Dollar
 

I'm so glad that it's climbing. :)

Re: US Dollar
 

What's climbing?

Re: US Dollar
 

holy crap

Buff how the hell are ya dude?

Re: US Dollar
 

Hey Forest. Been a long time. How you doing?